Published on: Recommendation
- emergency protection
Forecast and estimation of source terms in the event of nuclear power plant accidents
Recommendation by the German Commission on Radiological Protection
Adopted at the 270th meeting of the SSK on 17/18 July 2014
Abstract
In the event of a nuclear meltdown accident, it is vital to quickly have access to forecasts and estimates of the source term that are as reliable as possible. Such forecasts and estimates are required for the assessment of the radiological consequences on which, in turn, decisions regarding measures for protecting the general public will be based.
The source term forecast is defined as the prediction of an as yet unreleased source term. The source term estimation, on the other hand, it the prompt ascertainment of a source term that has already been released. The latter is of particular importance if the release was not recorded by the emissions monitoring equipment.
Based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident in Japan, the German Commission on Radiological Protection provided a series of recommendations to specify and build on the methods used for the forecast and estimation of the source term.